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Dear Respected Readers,

The Indonesian Economic State of Play (IESP) is a monthly report featuring comprehensive and concise insight and overview on Indonesian economy.

Since its first publication in January 2020, IESP provides insight and overview as well as data on the dynamics of macroeconomy (inflation, currency, consumers confidence, monetary policy rate, and foreign reserve); finance (banking and financial markets); industry (manufacturing index, car production); trade (retail sales, export-import), fiscal (state budget realization) and external debt.

Each edition reviews the economy in nearly two months (e.g., the 24th edition covers November until the third week of December), and published after Bank Indonesia announces its monetary policy rate for the respective month.

IESP consists of 20 pages, expanded to 25 pages every three months to cover Gross Domestic Product, Balance of Payment, and Direct Investment.

Start from the 25th edition in January 2022, we charge an affordable subscription fee. The IESP will be delivered to the paid subscribers in PDF format via emails.

Should you are interested to subscribe, please email us to contact@trade-off.id.

Thank you.

July 2022: “Inflationary pressure continued heightening in June due to the further increase in foods price. Rupiah weakened and its value broke  Rp15,000 per US dollar, but the central bank maintained BI Rate as its monetary policy rate at 3.5%. Stock market index has been continuing on a bearish trend. Demand for business loans and consumer loans had started to elevate.  The expansion of manufacturing charted another fall; while external trade recorded a higher surplus”.

June 2022: “Inflation further increased in May and the inflationary pressure continue heightening in June. Rupiah weakened mostly due to external factors, but the monetary policy rate unchanged. Stock market index has been on a bearish trend while bonds’ returns remained stable. Commercial banks kept well performed. The expansion of manufacturing weakened; external trade charted a higher surplus. State budget logged surplus and  budget financing fell”.

May 2022: “Up until May 2022, inflationary pressures heightened, and added with the weakened rupiah and a drop in stock market price  index. Foreign reserves fell to the lowest  in the past sixteen months. Commercial banks’ performance remained stable with  improvement in intermediary functions. Manufacturing was still on an expansionary phase at a bit faster pace; surplus in external trade rose. State budget printed better realization and gained surplus”.

April 2022: “Consumer price recorded a higher inflation in March and the inflationary pressure heightens in April. Rupiah is modestly strengthened and monetary policy rate unchanged. Stock market index on a bullish trend. The performance of commercial banks remains strong as reflected by an improved lending. Manufacturing was still on expansionary phase; external trade charted a higher surplus. State budget was surplus along with rise in revenues”.

March 2022: “After a deflation in February, inflationary pressure heightens in March while rupiah stable. Stock market index has been on an upward trend until the third week of March and bonds’ returns has been stable. The intermediary function of commercial banks kept improving along with steady reactivation of economic activities. Manufacturing was still on an expansionary phase; external trade charted a higher surplus. State budget recorded surplus as revenues hiked and expenditure fell.”

February 2022: The Indonesian economic state of play in 2022 started with a controllable inflationary pressure, a mild volatility of rupiah, and better stock price and bond indexes, but foreign reserve fell. Commercial banks are well- performed, and their intermediary functions kept improving. Manufacturing was still on an expansionary phase; external trade charted a lower surplus as exports and imports fell. 

January 2022: Overall, the Indonesian economic state of play in 2021 was better than in 2020. Inflation was higher but still under control, rupiah strengthened supported by accommodative monetary policy, and foreign reserves elevated. Banks improved their intermediary function, stock and bond markets performed better. Manufacturing was on expansionary phase, and external trade charted a record high surplus. State budget printed better realization with all sources of revenue exceeded the targets. 

December 2021: Taken together, the latest indicators shows that Indonesian economic state of play was still fairly stable during November-December. Despite the increase, inflation was still low and manageable, rupiah a bit weakened, monetary policy rate is still accommodative, and foreign reserve increased. Manufacturing sustained expansionary phase, while trade surplus reduced. Positive trend on tax and non-tax revenues helps budget deficit under control

November 2021: Overall, the Indonesian economic state of play kept improving during October-November 2021. Macroeconomic
stability is reflected by a mild inflation, stronger rupiah, and accommodative monetary policy rate, despite a modest decrease in foreign reserve. Manufacturing continued expansionary phase, and trade surplus boosted. Positive trend on tax revenue, signaled economic activities improvement”

October 2021: Overall, the Indonesian economic state of play continues improving during September-October 2021. Macroeconomic stability is reinforced by a small deflation, stronger rupiah, and a record high foreign reserve.
Manufacturing back to expansionary phase, while trade surplus decreased but still bulky. Better realization of state budget, notably positive trend on tax and non-tax revenues, gives confidence on economic recovery”

September 2021: Taken together, the latest indicators demonstrate that the Indonesian economic state of play during August-September 2021 is cautiously improving. A more stable macroeconomy, a neutral monetary policy high foreign reserve, the record high trade surplus, and better realization of state budget should add confident for economic recovery. Yet, any recovery may lose momentum if there is another rise of the Covid-19 outbreak

August 2021: Indonesia technically exit economic recession after the GDP registering a 7.07% growth in Q2/2021, following four consecutive contractions in the past four quarters. The growth data did not significantly affect rupiah, which continued weakening between Rp14,300-Rp14,500 per US$.  Inflation was low in July, and it is predicted to increase a bit in August. Exports fell in monthly basis, but trade surplus increased along with the deeper contraction of imports.

July 2021: There were no significant changes in economic situation since early June to the third week of July. The general prices recorded a deflation in June and would be back to a mild inflation in July. Rupiah is somewhat volatile, and so did the stock prices, while banking sector is still difficult to exit the stagnation in its intermediary function. The second wave of Covid-19 outbreak has impeded the pace of manufacturing expansion. Exports grew slower than the imports. 

June 2021: Up until mid of June, the economic stability was fairly manageable despite the modest increase in inflation and volatile rupiah. The central bank kept its monetary policy rate largely considers the need to maintain rupiah stability and the current rate is still conducive for economic recovery. In short-time, the upside risk will be the second wave of Covid-19 outbreaks countrywide especially due to the increasing people mobility during holidays in May.

May 2021:  Inflationary pressures kept manageable as indicated by low inflation, rupiah up and down in the range of Rp14,300 to Rp14,500 against the US dollar, while the central bank kept its monetary policy rates at 3.5%.  Economic contraction  narrowed when the GDP grew -0.74% (y-o-y) in Q1/2021 from -2.19% in the Q4/2020. The Balance of Payment enjoyed a quarterly surplus, while direct investment rose 4.27%, 24.4% of annual target in 2021.

April 2021: Amidst the continued low inflationary pressures, rupiah is still on a weakening trend over three weeks of April. Capital markets is also in a worsening performance as signified by the drop in stock price composite index and bond price index. Yields of government bonds has been increasing, reflects higher risks perception of Indonesian financial assets. Manufacturing is on faster pace of expansion and trade balance remained surplus

March 2021: Macroeconomic stability was a bit disrupted by the weakening trend of rupiah. Yet, the continuously low inflation and higher foreign reserve helped displaying better economic situation. Stock market printed better performance as indicated by recovery in stock index. Manufacturing was still expanding albeit on a lower pace, trade registered slightly higher surplus amid lower growths of exports imports.

February 2021: Macroeconomic situation continued to improve in January 2021. Inflation was manageable, rupiah stable, although stock market was somewhat volatile, and bonds’ performance   indicated a slightly lower growth of returns. Last year, the gross domestic product suffered a contraction of 2.07% (y-o-y) as the inevitably adverse effect of Covid-19 pandemic. Yet, balance of payment remained  surplus and direct investment slightly increased.

January 2021: Overall, macroeconomic situation at the end of 2020 was improved as demonstrated by manageable inflation, stronger rupiah, and fairly better performance of financial markets. Manufacturing stayed on expansionary phase, while external trade printed substantially large surplus compared with the deficit in 2019. Another social activity restriction is adopted from 11 January to 8 February this year. An extension is possible if the Covid-19 outbreak uncontrollable.